Archive for April, 2009

Estimating Run Times

April 28, 2009

I was barely able to squeak in under 10:00 pace this morning with my 4 mile run which was intended to be a recovery run from yesterday’s 10 miler. None-the-less this has me questioning my expected time for the half. I found this website calculator that gives estimates for a different distance than the one you know for sure.

http://runningtimes.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=6765

I plug in my 10k time (57:26, 9:15 pace) and can find that I should expect to run the half marathon in (2:06:26, 9:40 pace). But this course is flat and has a finish that is 137 feet lower elevation from the start. Since the 10k time was a trail run, how much better could I do? Hmmmm, 6 minutes 26 seconds, possibly, maybe, hopefully

I figure I don’t have enough time to go running all out the full 10k as a test but maybe once. But I can test a 5k a few times. So the stair step according to the calculator is this:

If I can run 3.1 miles at an 8:24 pace (25:12) then that means I can run 6.2 miles at an 8:45 pace (54:20). And if I can do that then I can then run a 13.1 mile half marathon at a 9:09 pace and that puts me on the finish line in just under 2 hours, by a second or two.

So any chance I get to go running on a flat 5k or 10k I will try and beat 25:12 or 54:20. If I can do this I should be able to break the two hour barrier in my first half marathon. If not then I will reset my sights on something like 2h 5m.

I found another calculator that only needs your mile time. It is not accurate for me, but there are a bunch of assumptions that may not hold true for me which might explain the discrepancy.

http://www.jeffgalloway.com/resources/gallracepredict.html

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10 kilometers to 10 miles

April 26, 2009

I ran, for the first time in my life 10.2 miles. I did the first 10k (6.2 miles) with my wife at a pace of about 12 minute miles, that is about 1h 13m. Then I made her a recovery drink and was back out for 4 more miles after my three minute break. I sped up to a pace of 9.5 minute miles but had to slow it back down cause things didn’t feel right. I did the 4 extra miles in 42 minutes to finish off my entire run in 1 hr 58m that included the break. This is 11.8 minutes per mile average pace, 11.5 if not for the break.

My calves are very sore. The drinks last night did not help as I think we started out not fully hydrated. We will not be doing the same thing next week when we are doing a 12k run together.

Three weeks from today is my half-marathon. My semi-unrealistic goal is to break 2 hours since it is such a nice round number. That is a pace of 6.55 mph or 9:10 pace. Since I just ran a 10k at a 9:15 pace this might seem a little far fetched but that was a trail run with hills, so a 8:50 pace should be possibility for a flat 10k, so does stretching it out to over double slow me down more than 20 seconds a mile? Probably, but this is by no means certain. I am going to add 2.5 miles on to my run next week so I can run 10 miles again. I might even add more if I am feeling frisky. There will have to be a break in there to get my t-shirt and stuff like that. But I really want to get in another long run before the half.

A more realistic goal might be to hold the 10.5 minute mile pace I did for the last 4 miles today. This is a 2h 17m finish time. A 10 minute mile will give 2h 11m, and a 9:30 mile will be 2h 4m. I should be somewhere in this range. The one thing that I wasn’t so sure about was the distance. Having just run 10 miles and feeling good enough to run faster at the end I now know that I can go that distance, adding 3 more miles is not a big deal. I was never sure I could run that far before but now my only question is how fast can I run it. My realistic goal will have to be to run beat the 10 minute per mile pace unless something changes between now and then.

I am going to get up early a few mornings this week and run 4 miles before I head to work. Running that distance only takes me 35-40 minutes and getting up that much earlier is not all that much of a huge deal. This way I can get a lot of miles in the week, take it a little easier the week after and even less the week leading to the half should get me about as ready as I can be. So I will get up Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for these 4 miles runs and finish off the week with my 12k plus 2.5 mile adder to hit a total of 22 miles for the week. Or 5.5 mile adder if I want to run a half and hit 25 miles for the week.

This week will be a great test for my recovery drinks and if they work well I will have to write more about what I have been trying.

10k results

April 25, 2009

more info related to my last post of the 10k race report…

I am very happy to find that I did better than I originally thought in the race. The time was correct, but it wasn’t a full listing. They had printed the results and posted them before everyone had finished. So my percentages were based on incomplete totals.

So instead of being in the 86th percentile for men I was in the 75th. And overall I was in the 46th. I had thought I would be around 50% and whenever I look at races I am having to shorten up my “expected” times to get my expectation down to the 50% mark. So I am very happy that I actually beat that!

I just signed up for the half marathon and found out it is slightly downhill and very few uphill bits for a total elevation drop of 137 feet. So I am looking forward to it and hope to keep the same pace as my 10k time. Seeing how it was through the woods and over the ridge and around the puddle and up and down and up and down and up and down the rolling hills.